There are video game companies, and then there’s Take-Two Interactive.
The company morphed into an entertainment unicorn of sorts with the 2013 video game GTA V, which shattered sales records upon release.
But GTA V’s real success — and what truly set Take-Two apart — came in the 13 years that followed. GTA Online became a thriving hub for players to explore the game, spend on virtual currency, and buy add-on content.
This has, understandably, pushed expectations skyward for GTA VI, the series’ latest installment, which is due out on Nov. 19. Investors don’t just want monstrous first-week sales. They’re looking for Take-Two’s next GTA Online-style annuity — something that can keep paying them for years.
To be clear, Take-Two makes other products, including the NBA 2K series and a full mobile suite through Zynga. But for the company’s stock, GTA VI is the only game in town right now (pun intended).
The chart below shows Take-Two stock essentially living and dying with each subsequent GTA VI update.
Shares are up 26% since the start of 2025, trailing the S&P 500’s 30% return over the period. Take-Two was actually outpacing the index until the fall from July record highs, though a sharp rally in recent days has helped close the gap.
Wall Street is all in
Share volatility or not, Wall Street is unanimously bullish on Take-Two. All 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg have a “buy” rating on it, and the average 12-month price target calls for 26% upside from Wednesday’s close.
A large swath of analysts reiterated their views after Take-Two said GTA VI presales were “far in excess” of expectations. Outside estimates put preorders at more than 7 million, worth roughly $750 million in sales.
Investors — and Wall Street’s sell side — were willing to overlook a decline in quarterly bookings and disappointing sales of NBA 2K27 to focus on GTA VI.
Still, a major question mark is when Take-Two will expand GTA VI — which is launching with just a single-player mode — into the multiplayer experience players have come to expect. And how will that fit into its existing GTA+ subscription service?
Wall Street can’t accurately model that piece yet, but it may determine whether the game lives up to mammoth expectations.
An industry tide-lifter — and a one-of-one stock
GTA VI’s broader impact is complicated. No other franchise is quite like it, and the 13-year gap between installments makes it an unusually concentrated event.
It could still lift PlayStation and Xbox console sales into the holidays as gamers upgrade. But Sony and Microsoft are too diversified to be true GTA VI-linked stocks. With EA now private, Take-Two is the rare large US-listed gamemaker whose valuation hinges largely on one blockbuster.
The pessimistic view is that GTA VI takes a bite out of rival publishers. Gamers have finite time and money, which is why studios have spent years giving GTA launch windows plenty of room.
In the end, Take-Two is not a one-game company. But it is a one-game stock right now. In exactly one week, we’ll start finding out whether its next GTA era can be as lucrative as the last.
BI recently interviewed Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick. Watch the full video here.
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